Asian Macro Initial Thoughts

This and previous notes can be found at asianmarketsense.com   and Substack ( Asian Market Sense )
Check out ERI-C.com for  interesting research and trading analysis On Tuesday there is a free Mifid compliant presentation by Stewart Paterson of Capital Dialectics "What China's Dual Circulation Policy & Resurgent Party Leadership Means For Investors”   To sign up please use the links below if you have any problems let me know.

Session 1: 10am London 5pm Hong Kong Click to register

Session 2: 3pm London 10am EST Click to register

Asia likely to open higher despite the weak US jobs report and with US markets closed expect light trading volumes. BBerg reports that Hedge Funds are reducing exposure to companies that are reliant on China due to slower growth and increased regulatory risk.
Eyes on President Xi, he radically changed the business environment within China.
Natural gas prices are undergoing a historic surge, and it is bad news for everyone from ceramic makers in China to customers of patisseries in Paris.  The cost of the fuel is already at record seasonal highs in most major markets and looks likely to rise further, threatening to dent the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The coming winter might give the world a painful lesson in just how pervasive and vital gas has become for the economy. Unaffordable prices could crimp households’ spending and erode their wages through inflation, giving central bankers some difficult policy choices. 

Australia Futures indicate market to open lower -23pts with Tech +VE follow the US Nasdaq, Oil companies weak but Gold +VE but Fortescue goes Ex Div. Friday after market S&P Dowjines anounced ASX rebalance.   
Data: Job Ads
Japan Futures indicate a higher open following Friday’s surge. Market to focus on potential PM Suga replacements and their policy’s  
S Korea Expect markets to open slightly higher with focus on Tech supporting the market. Key remains foreign buyers but with US markets closed the volumes are likely to be light.
Taiwan Expect market to open slightly hihger with continued interest in Tech supporting the market.
China Market to open lower with continued concerns over government policies.
HK ADR’s -26pts @ 25,875 with weakness in Financials as a disappointing jobs number puts rate hike further out. Chinese property developers in focus as monthly sales annnounced. Profit warning from Yue Yuen -VE for companies with Vietnamese operations 
US Markets closed for Labour Day

JAPAN Futures indicate a higher open following Friday’s surge. Market to focus on potential PM Suga replacements and their policy’s  
Yen currently 109.73
No Data due
Tokyo reported 2,362 new covid cases on Saturday, (-737 DoD) and the national tally was 16,012. Japan expected to extend the state of emergency in major cities.
PM Suga will back the popular minister in charge of Japan's vaccination rollout, Taro Kono, for the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leadership race this month, broadcaster Nippon News Network reported on Saturday.
Japan's trade ministry is ready to back Western Digital's bid to merge with memory chipmaker Kioxia provided control of cutting edge technology stays in Japan, two sources with knowledge of the industry regulator's internal discussions said.  The tie-up could give Japan greater leverage in geopolitical rivalries increasingly dominated by technology, including over shortages of chips. It could also help Japan forge deeper semiconductor industry ties with its U.S. ally, a commitment that President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Suga made in April.+VE
President Vladimir Putin says it is "nonsense" that Russia and Japan have not concluded a peace treaty following World War II while criticizing Tokyo for repeatedly changing its position in relevant talks. Speaking at an economic forum in Vladivostok in Far East Russia on Friday, Putin also expressed his concern that U.S. forces may install a missile system on Japanese soil near its border with Russia if a peace accord is signed, urging Japan to "ensure a peaceful future" where such a development would not be allowed.
Toshiba Corp said it would not be able to meet demand for power-regulating chips for another year and, in certain cases, through the end of next year, offering a fresh warning for makers of vehicles, consumer electronics and industrial machines struggling with component shortages. “The supply of chips will remain very tight until at least September next year,” said Takeshi Kamebuchi, a director in charge of semiconductors at one of the company’s units. “In some cases, we may find some customers not being fully served until 2023.”
ANA and JAL to launch commercial drone services to deliver medical supplies and daily necessities to people living in remote areas of Japan. Slight +VE


SOUTH KOREA 
Expect markets to open slightly higher with focus on Tech supporting the market. Key remains foreign buyers but with US markets closed the volumes are likely to be light.
No data due
KDCA reported 1,804 new COVID-19 cases Saturday (+95 DoD)
South Korea on Friday extended social distancing curbs for several weeks to rein in COVID-19 outbreaks nationwide as the country supercharges its vaccination campaign ahead of a thanksgiving holiday later this month. PM Kim Boo-kyum said the toughest level 4 restrictions in greater Seoul and level 3 curbs in the rest of the country would run through to Oct. 3. BUT they slightly eased some social distancing rules which will take effect starting Monday to alleviate the difficulties of small-business owners and the self-employed hit hard by the prolonged pandemic +VE.
Hyundai Motor Co (005380.KS) plans to use an auto chip it has developed itself for one of its upcoming vehicles next year, the Seoul Economy Daily reported on Friday. Hyundai Motor, which together with affiliate Kia Corp (000270.KS) is among the world's top 10 biggest automakers by sales, plans to internally develop a silicon carbide technology based power chip, the newspaper said, citing an unnamed industry source. +VE
CJ OliveNetworks, the ICT solutions provider of CJ Group, said Friday it is joining hands with Germany’s largest electric and electronic business Siemens on smart factories. Under the agreement, CJ will be responsible for developing solutions for the establishment of smart factories and operation and maintenance of the facilities. Siemens will supply products such as programmable logic controllers and supervisory control and data acquisition systems, and provide its know-how on building smart factories. +VE
SPC Group will open its 18th Shake Shack store in the bustling Hongdae district in Seoul in September, the company said Friday.
Naver, the largest internet business in South Korea, will present seven research papers on natural language processing in artificial intelligence at a globally renowned academic conference, the company said Friday. +VE


TAIWAN 
Expect market to open slightly hihger with continued interest in Tech supporting the market.
Data due  After Marekt Foreign Exchange Reserves
CECC reported 1 imported covid case and no domestic. 
The ratio of average daily turnover of day-trading transactions to overall stock market turnover from Friday last week to Thursday fell to 41.3 percent from 47.5 percent in the preceding five trading sessions, as day traders held back following the launch of a new stock warning system, Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) data showed. Under the new mechanism, which was launched on Thursday last week, the TWSE announces each trading session the names of stocks whose day-trading turnover should not exceed 60 percent of their turnover for the previous six trading sessions, as a way of informing investors which stocks have become overheated.
TSMC continued to command more than 50 percent of the global pure wafer foundry market in the second quarter of this year, according to Taipei-based market information advisory firm TrendForce Corp.TrendForce said TSMC generated US$13.30 billion in sales in the second quarter, up 3.1 percent from a quarter earlier, to take a 52.9 percent share of the global market. Samsung Electronics Corp. was in second place with a market share of 17.3 percent, down from 17.4 percent in the first quarter. UMC had 7.2% and SMIC 5.3%, +VE TSMC
PROEPRTY The sentiment gauge for presale and newly completed homes last month rose 5.4 points to 38 in northern Taiwan, with almost all of the constituent measures moving upward, although the overall reading remained “yellow-blue,” the Chinese-language My Housing Monthly said. The reading suggests a slowdown for the second straight month; as did the government’s business climate monitor but the worst is likely over, with daily numbers of locally transmitted COVID-19 cases falling to a low single digit, the report said. Slight +VE
ASE Technology Holding Co., the world's largest integrated circuit packaging and testing services provider, said it will hire more than 2,000 new workers by the end of this year as the company continues to expand production.
United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC), the second largest contract chipmaker in Taiwan, has agreed to set up a strategic partnership with integrated circuit packaging and testing services provider Chipbond Technology Corp. through a share swap. UMC announced the deal Friday evening, saying it will use one of its common shares to exchange for 0.87 common shares of Chipbond. After the share swap, UMC is expected to take a 9.09 percent stake in Chipbond, while the IC packaging and testing firm will take a 0.62 percent stake in the contract chipmaker.
As a result of the deal, UMC will become the largest shareholder of the IC packaging and testing services provider, it said. +VE

CHINA
Expect market to open lower with continued concerns over government policies.
No data due
China's National Health Commission reported 28 confirmed COVID-19 cases Friday (3rd), including one local case in the Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture in Yunnan.
China is facing growing difficulties in expanding its mass COVID-19 vaccination drive, but it will continue to inoculate more people and step up the programme of booster shots, a health official said on Friday. Zheng Zhongwei, an official at the National Health Commission, did not specify the obstacles but stressed that those who have not been vaccinated could not rely on being protected by those who have had the shots amid concerns over the highly transmissible Delta variant. -VE
Shanghai suspends key approval on route to offshore listings; comes without an offical view on the status of VIE structures. -VE
Press reproted Beijing Govt proposes an investment in Didi Global that would give state run firms control over it. Didi denied the report.
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC, 中芯) aims to spend US$8.87 billion to build a new plant on the outskirts of Shanghai, a major expansion in capacity at a time the nation is trying to build a world-class chip industry. SMIC has signed an agreement to establish a 100,000 wafers per month fab in the Lin-Gang Special Area, a free-trade zone run by the city. The facility would focus on more mature technology of 28 nanometers or older, the company said in a filing.
PBoC is looking to close loopholes in the FinTech Regulations and include all types of financial institutions, services and products into its prudential supervision framework.
China's State Administration for Market Supervision (SAMR) is strengthening the antitrust review of 11 cases tied to concentration of business operators, including the merger between Tencent's Huya and DouYu, and BIDU-SW (09888.HK)'s takeover of YY, in accordance with the law. SAMR aims to step up and optimize the antitrust review of business operators' concentration, according to the China Anti-monopoly Law Enforcement Annual Report (2020).
While China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is opening public consultation on the basic arrangement of the setup of Beijing Stock Exchange, Yang Zhe, Deputy Director of Public Company Department of CSRC, revealed that the Exchange will not set any day limits for ups and downs for the IPO debut, before constraining the limits at +/-30% from the second day.
More than 60 European Parliament members on Friday voiced their support for Lithuania's decision to forge closer ties with Taiwan, and expressed opposition against threats and intimidation from China.  In an open letter initiated by Petras Auštrevičius from Lithuania, and Reinhard Bütikofer from Germany, these European Parliament members from 20 countries and five different political groups expressed their solidarity with the Baltic state and Taiwan at a time of growing threats from China.
Brazil's federal health regulator Anvisa on Saturday suspended the use of over 12 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine developed by China's Sinovac Biotech Ltd (SVA.O) that were produced in an unauthorized plant, it said in a statement.
Anvisa said it was alerted on Friday by Sao Paulo's Butantan institute, a biomedical center that has partnered with Sinovac to locally fill and finish the vaccines, that 25 batches, or 12.1 million doses, sent to Brazil had been made in the plant.
Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, has suspended beef exports to its No. 1 customer China after confirming two cases of “atypical” mad cow disease in two separate domestic meat plants, the agriculture ministry said on Saturday. -VE especially as China has an on-going African Swine Flu problem this could put pressure on pork prices.
Premier Li Keqiang urged major powers to "show responsibility" and play a leading role in improving global environmental governance and addressing such challenges as climate change.
Speaking via video link at the opening ceremony of the IUCN World Conservation Congress on Friday, Li said countries should use the United Nations to draw up global rules and create a governance system that is fair, reasonable and benefit-sharing.
"The international community must use unprecedented determination and action to promote the construction of a beautiful world in which humanity is in harmony with nature," he added.
The Chinese government's campaign to improve conditions for workers has spurred companies, particularly some of its hardest-driving tech giants, to cut down on long hours of compulsory overtime but not all employees are happy about it.  Some employees at TikTok-owner ByteDance were shocked to find their August paychecks slashed 17% after the company ended its policy of requiring its China-based staff to work a six-day week every second week. "My workload hasn't actually changed," a product manager at ByteDance told Reuters, declining to be identified given the sensitivity of the topic. "But unfortunately the salary is lower." -VE

HONG KONG  ADR’s -26pts @ 25,875 with weakness in Financials as a disappointing jobs number puts rate hike further out. Chinese property developers in focus as monthly sales annnounced. Profit warning from Yue Yuen -VE for companies with Vietnamese operations 
No data due

SHORT SELLING Friday 15% vs 14.7% Thursday
Top shorts 
Shenzhou (2313) 43%,CK Assets (1113) 31%, BYD (1211) 27%, WH Group (288) 26%, MTRC (66) 26%, Bank of China (3988) 25%.  

WATCH
YUE YUEN IND (00551.HK) Profit Warning; announced that in view of the escalation of the Pandemic in Vietnam since July 2021,
 the authorities has adopted more rigorous pandemic prevention measures, including tighter lockdowns in Ho Chi Minh City and its surrounding industrial provinces. In response to the Measures, factories in Vietnam may be ordered to suspend operation upon instructions by local authorities from time to time. Up to now, most of the Group’s manufacturing capacity in Vietnam was disrupted and impacted due to the Measures. Therefore, the revenue of the Group’s manufacturing business in the third quarter of 2021 will be significantly impacted.

SUNWAH KINGSWAY (00188.HK) +0.005 (+1.429%) +VE Profit Alert  is expected to record a net profit of not less than HK$28 million for the year ended 30 June 2021 as compared to the net loss of HK$41 million for the corresponding period in 2020.

PING AN (02318.HK) -0.300 (-0.495%) Short selling $178.66M; Ratio 6.235% announced the repurchase of more than 532,000 A-shares of the Company on Shanghai Stock Exchange today (3rd), at a price ranging between RMB50.72-50.95, involving around RMB27.056 million.

Moody's lowered the Corporate Family Rating (CFR) of R&F PROPERTIES (02777.HK) -0.140 (-2.124%) Short selling $64.65M; Ratio 50.267% from B1 to B2, while downgrading R&F Properties (HK) Company's CFR from B2 to B3. The outlooks were negative, subject to review for further downgrade.

XIAOMI-W (01810.HK) +0.100 (+0.395%) Chairman and CEO Lei Jun, with effect from 31 August, ceased to control Lei Jun Foundation (a charity body), as revealed by the Stock Exchange. The Foundation held 308 million Xiaomi Class B ordinary shares.
As a result, Lei Jun's long position in Xiaomi dropped from 10.63% to 9.12%.

C-MER EYE (03309.HK) +0.590 (+7.564%) Short selling $14.52M; Ratio 15.018% announced the acquisition of a 55% stake in Shenzhen CKJ.  Lam Shun Chiu Dennis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of C-MER EYE, anticipated stronger brand effect upon the takeover. Going ahead, both sides will align with each other in terms of development, while tapping regions other than entry ports.

JD-SW (09618.HK) -2.800 (-0.889%) Short selling $400.60M; Ratio 38.066% announced that JD Property, an indirect non-wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, has conditionally agreed to acquire 916 million shares of CNLP (01589.HK), representing 26.38% of the share capital of CNLP, for a total consideration of about HK$3.987 billion in cash.
The consideration represents a value of HK$4.35 per share, i.e. a premium of 7.41% before CNLP's trading halt.

HKEX (00388.HK) -10.800 (-2.167%) Short selling $543.91M; Ratio 15.224% issued a letter to brokers, notifying them of a new monthly fee discount plan scheduled to be launched in October, which will provide a half-price discount to every participant for their first Stock Exchange trading right, the first central gateway session monthly fee and the first Stock Exchange monthly fee for additional throttle, for a period of two years, with the total amount of discount exceling over $64,500, reported local media.

Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes, Director of Macao Government Tourism Office, expressed that the COVID-19 outbreak in early August this year has dampened the inbound visitor number over the summer holiday, as the tourist figure for the month amounted to mere 410,000, down 47%, compared to 790,000 recorded in July, reported Radio Macau.  The tourism director remarked that, with the outbreak in Macau beginning to stabilize and the pandemic restrictions starting to be eased, the government hopes to rebuild the desire and confidence for Mainland China's travelers to visit Macau before the October 1 Golden Week.

CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK) +0.150 (+0.264%) Short selling $48.71M; Ratio 13.188% 's statement disclosed that it has repurchased 16.4885 million shares YTD, representing 0.4276% of the share capital of the Company.

CK ASSET (01113.HK) -0.450 (-0.897%) Short selling $180.93M; Ratio 30.606% announced that Li Ka Shing Foundation has acquired a total of 1.62 million shares in CK Asset at the average price of HK$50.8502, HK$50.9175, HK$51.1485 and HK$50.4471 per share on 30 August, 31 August, 1 September and 2 September 2021 respectively. As a result, the deemed interests of Li Ka-shing, Victor T K Li and Li Ka Shing Foundation Limited in CK Asset increased from 45.9% to 45.95%; increased from 45.97% to 46.02%; and increased from 11.19% to 11.23%, respectively.

U-TON FUTURE (06168.HK) announced that there will be a delay in publication of the 2021 Interim Results and the despatch of the 2021 Interim Report as the publication of the 2020 Annual Results and the despatch of the 2020 Annual Report are still pending. Trading in the shares of the Company has been suspended with effect from 5 May and will remain suspended until further notice.

CHINA AOYUAN (03883.HK) -0.110 (-2.273%) Short selling $11.00M; Ratio 28.884% announced that the Group’s accumulated property contracted sales for the first eight months of 2021 was RMB87.55 billion in total, representing an increase of 23% over the corresponding period of 2020.

CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) -0.200 (-0.913%) Short selling $24.74M; Ratio 20.314% announced that for the month ended 31 August 2021, the Company achieved a contract sales amount of RMB37.03 billion, down 36.9% YoY.

KWG GROUP (01813.HK) -0.140 (-1.687%) Short selling $6.18M; Ratio 6.263% announced that, for August 2021, the pre-sales value of the group and its joint ventures and associates amounted to RMB7.19 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 25.2%. The pre-sales area amounted to approximately 383,000 square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 41.7%.

CENTRAL CHINA (00832.HK) -0.013 (-0.746%) Short selling $891.06K; Ratio 21.314% announced that the group's contracted sales for August amounted to RMB5.255 billion, down slightly by 0.1% YoY, while the contracted sales gross floor area rose 8% to 731,100 square meters.

SHIMAO GROUP (00813.HK) +0.100 (+0.605%) Short selling $50.53M; Ratio 17.045% announced that in August, the Group’s contracted sales amounted to approximately RMB24.04 billion, down 18.67% yearly. Contracted sold area amounted to 1.36 million sq.m..

YUZHOU GROUP (01628.HK) -0.040 (-2.581%) Short selling $591.57K; Ratio 12.021% announced that the group's contracted sales for August amounted to RMB9.011 billion, down 21.81% YoY, while the corresponding gross floor area sold amounted to 431,200 sq.m., down 38.43%. The average selling price was RMB20,898 per sq.m., up 27% YoY.

TIMES CHINA (01233.HK) -0.020 (-0.258%) Short selling $1.87M; Ratio 15.197% announced that in August,
 the Group’s contracted sales amounted to approximately RMB6.75 billion, up 24.33% YoY, with contracted gross floor area of approximately 319,000 square meters.

HONGLIANG HLDG (02772.HK) +0.040 (+0.853%) Short selling $386.10K; Ratio 4.006% announced that the group's contracted sales for August amounted to approximately RMB12 billion, down 29% YoY, with the contracted sales gross floor area amounted to about 959,000 square meters.

All three major Centaline Property indices slightly recovered the lost grounds over this week and continued to fluctuate at a close range to respective record peaks,
 suggested the research department of Centaline Property.
Bound within the range of 189-191 for the fifth consecutive week, Centa-City Leading Index (CCL) last stood at 189.75, up 0.13% WoW. 
CCL (small-to-medium flats) oscillated within the narrow range of 190-191, up 0.56% over the past five weeks. 
CCL (large units) was likewise seesawing between 186-191, up 0.32% over the past five weeks.