Things to know before trading Asia on Monday.

This and previous notes can be found at asianmarketsense.com   and Substack ( Asian Market Sense )
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Australia Expect a weak open after US markets closed lower on Friday. Data due Monday Manufacturing Index, PMI, Inflation Guage and Job Ads data due.
Japan Nikkei expect a lower open with covid a concern as the state of emergency is extended.
S Korea Expect markets to open after weak trade data out over the weekend.
Taiwan Market to open flat good GDP Growth data out Friday after market.
China Market to open weak PMI data a concern as export orders drop and raw material prices rise.
HK ADR’s +7pts but expect market to trend lower after the weak China data over the weekend
US Another big week for earnings in the US but a jobs report likely to be the most important indicator. Alibaba earnings on Tuesday will be closely watched.

DOW -0.42%, NDX -0.71%, S&P -0.54%, Russel 2K -0.62%
Dow opened around flat but drifted lower. S&P and NDX had a weak open and basically traded sideway after Amazon’s -7.6% disappointing results; Pinterest was -18.2% as it dropped monthly users. Concerns over covid resurgence and new mutations. Signs of price inflation albeit slightly below forecast; 3.5% is still stronger than has been seen for sometime. Other data was weaker than forecasts easing concerns about Fed tightening.
Procter & Gamble +2% beat estimates but warned that increasing commodity costs could hit its earnings in the upcoming year.
Robinhood +1% in volatile trading on Friday after closing its debut session -8%.
Banks 
JPMorgan Chase -0.8%, Citigroup -1% Wells Fargo -1.2%, Amex -0.8%
Work from home names: Facebook -0.6%, Apple +0.2%, Amazon -7.6%, Netflix +0.7%,  Disney -1.3%, Zoom Video -2.1%, Alphabet -0.8% and Microsoft -0.6%,
Tech NXP Semi +1%, Nvidia -0.8%, Micron +0.7%, AMD +3.2%, Skyworks -6.2%
Re-opening stocks  Boeing -2.2%, Caterpillar -2.7%, Simon Property +0.5%, Kohl’s +1.9%, Nordstrom +1.8%, Gap +0.8%, United Airlines -3.7%, Carnival -4.7%, Wynn Resorts -1.4%, Chevron -0.7%, Exxon Mobil -2.3%,  
Lock down names Campbell Soup -0.5% General Mills -0.1%, JM Smucker -0.2%
DATA
Personal Spending Jun 1% MoM vs -0.1% May (F/cast was +0.5%)
Personal Income Jun 0.1% MoM vs -2.2% May (F/cast was -0.3%)
Employment Cost Index Q2 +0.7% QoQ vs +0.9% Q1 (F/cast was +1.1%)
Employment Cost Wages Q2 +0.9% QoQ vs +1% Q1 (F/cast was +1.2%)
Employment Cost Benefits Q2 +0.4% QoQ vs +0.6% Q1 (F/cast was +0.5%)
PCE Price Index Jun +0.5% MoM vs +0.5% May revised (F/cast was +0.8%)
PCE Price Index Jun +4% YoY vs +4% May revised (F/cast was +4.2%)
Core PCE Price Index Jun +0.4% MoM vs +0.5% May revised (F/cast was +0.6%)
Core PCE Price Index Jun +3.5% YoY vs +3.4% May revised (F/cast was +3.7%)
Chicago PMI Jul 73.4 vs 66.1 Jun (F/cast was 64)
Michigan Data Final
Consumer Sentiment Jul 81.2 vs 85.5 Jun (F/cast was 80.8)
Inflation Expectations Jul +4.7% vs +4.2% Jun (F/cast was +4.8%)
5 year Inflation Expectations Jul +2.8% vs +2.8% Jun (F/cast was +2.9%)
Current Conditions Jul 84.5 vs 88.6 Jun (F/cast was 84.5)
Consumer Expectations Jul 79 vs 83.5 Jun (F/cast was 78.4)
Baker Hughes Total Rig 488 vs 491 prior
Baker Hughes Total Rig 385 vs 387 prior
USD was slightly stronger vs Yen & Euro. Bitcoin +1% @ 41,775.57,  VIX +3.1% @ 18.24,  US T10 @ 1.226%
OIL Brent +0.4%, WTI +0.45% 
Gold -1.03%, Silver -0.9%, Copper -0.95% Platinum -2.03%, Palladium +0.79%.
AHEAD Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Data (PMI, Employment, Prices, New Orders), Logistics Managers Index

DAX -0.61%, CAC -0.32%, FTSE -0.65%
Markets opened lower but worked better through the day. Travel & Leisure -VE on covid concerns. Eurozone GDP data better than expected but German inflation also rose prompting the services trade union to ask for substantial wages rises. Earnings still in focus; sentiment hurt by the weak Amazon numbers.
BNP Paribas -1.2% despite a 26% annual rise in net profit for the second quarter to 2.9 billion euros ($3.44 billion), exceeding market expectations on the back of a rebound in business activity.
Renault -3% despite net profit recovering from the substantial loss for the same period last year as the pandemic shut down production across the industry. It forecast a full-year profit in 2021 despite the challenges caused by the global semiconductor shortage.
L’Oréal +0.3% after reporting an acceleration in Q2 sales growth in part due to a surge in U.S. makeup sales as lockdowns eased.
UniCredit +3.1% after a strong second-quarter profit beat.
Intertek -8% after its first-half results.
DATA
Eurozone

Core Inflation Rate Flash Jul +0.7% YoY vs +0.9% Jun (F/cast was +0.9%)
Inflation Rate Flash Jul +2.2% YoY vs +1.9% Jun (F/cast was +2%)
Inflation Rate Flash Jul +-0.1% MoM vs +0.3% Jun (F/cast was -0.3%)
GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2 +2% QoQ vs -0.3% Q1 (F/cast was +1.5%)
GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2 +13.7% YoY vs -1.3% Q1 (F/cast was +12.6%)
Unemployment Rate Jun +7.7% vs 8% May (F/cast was +7.8%)
Germany
GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2 +1.5% QoQ vs -2.1% Q1(F/cast was +1.9%)
GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2 +9.2% YoY vs -3.1% Q1(F/cast was +9.5%)
France
GDP Growth Rate Prelim Q2 +0.9% QoQ vs 0% Q1 (F/cast was +0.7%)
Household Consumption Jun +0.3% MoM vs +10.6% May (F/cast was +1.7%)
Inflation Rate prelim Jul +1.2% YoY vs +1.5% Jun (F/cast was +1.2%)
Inflation Rate prelim Jul +0.1% MoM vs +0.1% Jun (F/cast was +0.1%)
AHEAD
EUROZONE Manufacturing PMI
GERMANY Retail Sales, Manufacturing PMI
FRANCE Manufacturing PMI, New Car Registrations
UK  Manufacturing PMI

JAPAN 
Nikkei expect market to open lower as covid surges and the state of emergency is extended.
Data due Manufacturing PMI Jul (Jun was 52.4 F/cast is 52.2)
Later Consumer Confidence.
Tokyo reported 3,058 new covid cases (-1,000 DoD)
Japan will act "without hesitation" to cushion the economic blow from the COVID-19 pandemic, economy minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on Friday, signalling the government's readiness to compile another spending package as the crisis weighs on growth. +VE
Toshiba Corp's(6502.T) board said on Friday its strategic review committee would identify core and non-core businesses and soon make recommendations to the board on the strategy of the scandal-hit Japanese conglomerate. +VE
Nomura Holdings Inc (8604.T), reported a 66% drop in Q1 net profit due to a slowdown in the trading and the loss from the Archegos debacle. April-June profit was 48.5 billion yen ($442.76 million), beating market expectations by 13% but down sharply from 142.5 billion yen a year earlier. Trading revenue was weak particularly in fixed-income markets -VE

SOUTH KOREA 
Expect markets to open lower after the trade data shows the pace of growth slowing and the covid resurgence.
Data due Manufacturing PMI Jul (Jun was 53.9 F/cast is 52.7) 
Data out Sunday
Balance of Trade Jul $1.76b vs 4.44b Jun (F/cast was 5b)
Exports Jul +29.6% vs 39.7% Jun (Consensus was 30.2%)
Imports Jul +38.2% vs 40.7% Jun (Consensus was 42%)
Exports jumped to a record high in July as overseas demand for chips and biohealth products extended export growth to a ninth consecutive month, supporting an economic recovery facing headwind from the country's worst COVID-19 outbreak yet.
KDCA reported 1,442 COVID-19 cases, including 1,386 local infections on Sunday. (-97 DoD). Health authorities are considering additional measures to contain the fourth wave of the pandemic as new cases continued to spring up across the country despite strict virus curbs. Key worry is the Liberation Day holidays coming up.
Game makers -VE as a revision bill has been proposed to allow game players to withdraw from their contracts with game developers and get refunds when faced with unfair practices.
South Korea marked its first trade surplus in medicines in 2020, backed by gains in drug exports, the government said Sunday.
According to data from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, the country posted a surplus of 1.39 trillion won ($1.21 billion) in pharmaceutical trade in 2020, which grew 62.5 percent from the year earlier +VE
Kakao Mobility is expanding into the on-call chauffeur service market by buying into the field’s No. 1 player, Korea Drive, the company said Sunday +VE.
LG Energy Solution on Sunday announced its new environmental, social and governance vision, pledging to source electricity generated 100 percent by renewables at all its business sites by 2030 and go carbon neutral by 2050.
The race to acquire the troubled SsangYong Motor is heating up beyond expectations, with nine groups reportedly having expressed interest. +VE
Mid-sized local cryptocurrency exchanges in Korea are shutting down as the country’s finance regulator has caught some of their illegal activities recently, and stricter regulations are to be implemented to allow their business operations, industry sources said Sunday.

TAIWAN 
Expect market to open flat good GDP Growth data out Friday after market.
Data due pre market
Manufacturing PMI Jul (Jun was 57.6 F/cast is 56) 
Data out After Market Friday
GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2 +7.47% vs +8.92% Q1 (F/cast was +7.2%)
CECC reported 14 new covid cases on Sunday.
The last Taiwanese official at the nation’s representative office in Hong Kong was forced home on Friday afternoon after Hong Kong authorities refused to extend his visa.
A US military officer on Thursday appeared on a Ministry of National Defense TV program for the first time since the countries severed diplomatic ties more than four decades ago.
US Army Colonel Brady Crosier, who heads the security cooperation office at the American Institute in Taiwan, was interviewed on Lu-Kang Garden in a segment marking the 80th anniversary of the First American Volunteer Group of the Republic of China, also known as the Flying Tigers. Taiwan and the US continue to work closely on security matters, humanitarian aid and disaster relief, he said, adding that the US conducted search-and-rescue missions in Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot in 2009.
Asustek Computer Inc expects robust demand for its products in the second half of this year as the back-to-office trend is sparking a wave of upgrades to accommodate Microsoft Corp’s new operating system, a top official said Friday. “Orders are not a problem,” co-CEO S.Y. Hsu told shareholders during an annual general meeting. “The largest uncertainty comes from the supply of parts and materials.” Mainly +VE
The Investment Commission has approved a plan by TSMC to expand production at its plant in Nanjing, China. The plan was approved because the investment would come from the chipmaker’s earnings from the Nanjing plant and would not have an impact on its paid-in capital, the commission said. +VE

CHINA
Expect market to open lower as weekend PMI data showed factory activity had slowed; further endorsing the recent RRR cut but will raise more concerns as covid resurges and material prices rise.
Data due after market open Manufacturing PMI Jul (Jun was 51.3 F/cast is 51)
Data out Saturday
Manufacturing PMI Jul 50.4 vs 50.9 Jun (F/cast was 50.8) slowest in 17mths but just above 50. Concerns that the new export order index at its lowest since last July and the raw material index rises
Non Manufacturing PMI Jul 53.3 vs 53.5 Jun (F/cast was 53)
China reported 75 new covid cases Sunday ( +20 DoD) with 53 local transmissions with over 20 cities and more than a dozen provinces reporting cases; due to a cluster linked to an eastern airport. It has rolled out testing for millions.
China's Politburo demanded to perfect the regulatory system for the overseas listings of Chinese companies during a meeting, while also stressing the importance of stabilizing land and property prices, so as to foster steady and healthy development of the housing market. President Xi Jinping expressed that China has to build its satisfactory outcome of pandemic control and socioeconomic development achieved in 1H and concentrate on macro policies and cross-cycle adjustments in 2H.
China's securities regulator said on Sunday it will seek closer cooperation with its U.S. counterpart and will support overseas listings, after U.S. regulators tightened disclosure for Chinese companies and voiced concern about Beijing's regulatory actions. Still trying to repair the damage caused by the crackdown on the education sector.
China’s growth in new home prices slowed in July for the first time in five months, with smaller cities especially weighed down by higher mortgage rates, price caps on resale homes and other steps to cool speculation, a private-sector survey showed on Sunday. -VE for some smaller developers
China will maintain a prudent, flexible and targeted monetary policy in the second half of the year, its central bank said on Saturday, as it seeks to support growth while keeping the digital economy in check. China's economy has staged a strong rebound from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but recent data has suggested that gains are fading.

HONG KONG  
ADR’s 7pts at 25,968 weakness in Ecommerce and Financials. Biden’s EO effective today means US investors cannot buy stocks like Mobile, Unicom, SMIC, CNOOC, Tracker and others  
Data due after market Retail Sales
Out After Market Friday
GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2 -1% QoQ vs +5.5% Q1 (F/cast was +1.3%) 
GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2 +7.5% YoY vs +8% Q1 revised (F/cast was +6.1%) 

Short SellingShort Selling Friday 15.8% vs 17.4% Thursday
Top Shorts  
Country Garden (2007) 51%, Bud Apac (1876) 49%, Sunny Optical (2382) 38%, Haidilao (6862) 32%, MTRC (66) 32%, Mengniu Dairy (2319) 31%, Wharf REIC (1997) 30%, HKEX (388) 29%, HSBC (5) 28%, Bank of China (3988) 28%, Ping An (2318) 27%, Geely Auto (175) 26%, Ali Health (241) 26%, CK Asset  (1113) 26%,.

COVID
HK had no new covid cases reported on Sunday.
But in light of the recent development of the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S., Hong Kong government is planning to tighten the quarantine measures for inbound visitors from the U.S., reported South China Morning Post, citing sources.

Relevant measures may include stretching the required quarantine period from 14 days to 21 days.

WATCH
The first HK$2000 consumption voucher has been disbursed to about 5.5 million people Sunday.
People that have completed electronic registration by July 17 will receive SMS notifications or mobile app push notifications on the disbursement today.
A local Chinese restaurant that offers customers to pay with Octopus cards sees 30 percent more customers dining-in for morning tea this morning, its representative said the sales are estimated to increase by 20 percent. +VE for local economy.

The Grand Lisboa Palace Resort Macau, located in Cotai, representing an investment of about HK$39 billion, officially opened its doors to the public on Saturday. The integrated resort is developed by SJM Resorts, S.A. SJM described it as a milestone project, which represents Macau’s historical traditions and cultural interchange of East and West +VE SJM

CHALIECO (02068.HK) issued a positive profit alert, expecting that the net profit from January to June 2021 will experience a turnaround from loss to profit as compared to the corresponding period of the preceding year, with the net profit ranging from RMB2 million to RMB3 million and the the net loss of the corresponding period of the preceding year being RMB143 million.

SHUANG YUN HLDG (01706.HK) issued a positive profit alert, announcing that the group is expected to record an increase in its unaudited consolidated profit for the six months ended 30 June 2021 by around 120% to 140% as compared to a profit recorded for the previous corresponding financial period. Such expected increase was mainly attributable to gradual recovery of the company's construction works.

SYNERGIS HOLD (02340.HK) issued a positive profit alert, announcing that the group expects to record a profit attributable to shareholders within a range of HK$15 million to HK$25 million for the six months ended 30 June 2021 as compared with that of approximately HK$1.6 million for the same period in 2020.

HYSAN DEV (00014.HK) issued a positive profit alert, announcing that the company expects that it may record a profit of not less than HKD500 million for the six months ended 30 June 2021, as compared with a loss of HKD2.626 billion for the corresponding period in 2020

GEMDALE PPT (00535.HK) issued a profit warning, announcing that the group may record the profit attributable to the owners of the company ranging from approximately RMB1.03 billion to RMB1.1 billion for the six months ended 30 June 2021 as compared to the profit of approximately RMB1.608 billion for the corresponding period in 2020.

CHOW SANG SANG (00116.HK) issued a positive profit alert.
 The Group is expected to record its profit between HK$518 million and HK$539 million, representing an increase of 145% to 155% as compared to the corresponding period in 2020. The Board considers that the main cause of the increase was the swift recovery of the Group’s jewellery retail business in Mainland China subsequent to the slump caused by the covid-19 pandemic during the first quarter of 2020.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the results of its survey on residential mortgage loans (RMLs) in negative equity at end-June 2021. 
The estimated number of RMLs in negative equity decreased to 5 cases at end-June 2021 from 67 cases at end-March 2021. These cases were related to bank staff housing loans or RMLs under mortgage insurance programme, which generally have a higher loan-to-value ratio.
The aggregate value of RMLs in negative equity decreased to HK$21 million at end-June 2021 compared with HK$379 million at end-March 2021.

SHUI ON LAND (00272.HK) issued a positive profit alert, 
announcing that the company is expected to record a net profit of approximately RMB1 billion for the six months ended 30 June 2021 as compared to the net loss of RMB1.622 billion for the corresponding period in 2020.

Centa-City Leading Index (CCL) last posted at 188.77, marking a 105-week high, up 1.01% weekly, with the sharpest increment in 13 weeks. Given housing prices approaching the historic high, the wrestle between buyers and sellers will ramp up, forecast the research department of Centaline Property. They believed the price tussle to linger for a while, stating the current CCL is 0.90% away from its own all-time high at 190.48.